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Runner's Forum: marathon time prediction-Daniels running formula

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  1.  
    • CommentAuthorFree Memberceltic1234
    • CommentTimeJul 14th 2008
     
    celtic1234

    Hi all

    According to Daniels running formula i should be finishing a marathon in 3:04.

    I ran in Berlin last september and did a conservative 3:40. Since last october i have really upped my training and have included loads of short races in my program. AT the moment my race times are:

    3K:11:02(2 months ago)

    5 miles(yesteday): 32:08(hilly course)

    6 miles(last month): 40:25(hilly course)

    on a flat course i know i can beat 32 mins for 5 miles, and 40 mins for 10K-i have done it in training. I have done a few easy 12 mile runs in 90 mins and my heart rate is well below what i aim to run the marathon in.

    I have aimed since last september to come back to Berlin this year and beat 3:20.

    What i would like to know-is 3:20 a realistic target  for me? I have found Daniels predictions in his book a bit on the gernerous side. If his book says 3:04 then surely i can manage 3:20 or am i kidding myself?

    Opinions really appreciated

  2.  
    rpetreccajr
    McMillanrunning.com and Runnersworld.com both have tools to help predict your time for a given distance based on time at another distance. I think they are both based on the same formula, but couldn't guarantee that. I think both assume that you run the races at the best of your ability for that distance and you have the same amount of training for both. I found that the predictions were slightly slow for me due to the time between the shorter race and the longer one. I was in better shape for the longer race as I had more training time. Of course much depends on the conditions on the day of the race. If it is pouring down rain or 90 degrees out, you may not make whatever the prediction is.

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