What To Do

Categories

Social Bookmarks

Feeds

Runner's Forum: 1st marathon....what is my projected time?

Bottom of Page

1 to 18 of 18

  1.  
    • CommentAuthorFree MemberCowboys3eb
    • CommentTimeAug 17th 2008
     
    Cowboys3eb
    I am on the 5th week of an 18 week program for the san antonio marathon in nov. I am fairly new to running and I was wondering what would my projected finish time be. I have been doing my short runs (3-6 mi) at about a 6:45 - 7:00 pace. My long runs 10-12 miles have been at a 7:50-8:05 pace. If I kept at this pace, what would my time most likely be. Also is my long run pace seem slow. Any feedback would be great, thanks.
    • CommentAuthorFree Memberbob8me
    • CommentTimeAug 18th 2008
     
    bob8me

    Hi,

     

    I've never done a full Marathon myself but it is my understanding that for the first one getting under 4 hours is a reasonably respectable time.

     People often say that you actually pick up the pace towards the end.

    Hope this helps.

    • CommentAuthorFree Memberrogerbum
    • CommentTimeAug 18th 2008
     
    rogerbum
    There's a number of web sites that provide estimated times for a marathon given a particular starting point. Assuming you can reliably do a 7:50 pace for 10 miles, the McMillan running calculator would predict a marathon time of about 3:39 or an average pace of 8:23 were you to run it now.  Depending on what your training schedule is and exactly how you prepare in the last week or two, your times may vary considerably from this estimate.  There are a number of sites with marathon training schedules (some for a fee and some free) at which you put in a current time, the desired time and the number of weeks of training left prior to the race and it calculates a training schedule that will help you achieve a goal time.  Just google marthon time prediction or marathon training schedule and look around a bit.
    • CommentAuthorFree MemberCowboys3eb
    • CommentTimeAug 19th 2008
     
    Cowboys3eb

    Thank you rogerbum, that really helps me out

    • CommentAuthorFree MemberGilly32
    • CommentTimeAug 25th 2008
     
    Gilly32
    See Hal Higdon's book: "Marathon: The Ultimate Guide"  He has a great chapter on it.
    • CommentAuthorFree Memberaswistak
    • CommentTimeAug 28th 2008
     
    aswistak
    try Yasso's 800s!
    • CommentAuthorFree Memberaswistak
    • CommentTimeAug 28th 2008 edited
     
    aswistak

    sorry... here's a link to the runner's world article on it.

    http://www.runnersworld.com/article/0,7120,s6-238-244-255-624-0,00.html

     

    haven't tried it myself but have heard where its worked for a lot of others... maybe it can work for you?

    • CommentAuthorFree Memberrconway
    • CommentTimeAug 28th 2008
     
    rconway

    Hey Cowboy,

     Based on the fact that you are doing your 3-6 milers in 6:45-7:00 pace, I do think you are probably doing your long runs a little bit too slow.  Try maintaining a 7:30 pace on your next long run and see how you make it through.  It should still feel relatively relaxed.

    I have been running for about 10 years.  My 5-7 mile runs go at around 6:35ish while my 10-13 milers go at about 7:10ish.  My marathon times in the past have been about 3:12.

    Hope this helps you and good luck!

    Ryan

     

    • CommentAuthorFree MemberKDogg
    • CommentTimeAug 28th 2008
     
    KDogg

    its actually really hard to tell you how fast you will run based purely on your training pace. You can be training at a pace way above your fitness level which is not really beneficial, it just breaks you down faster or possibly at a pace much below your fitness level which doesn't give you the aerobic benefits you want or need.

    An example, I used to train with a guy who was (and still is) very fast. For him, an easy day is 5:45 pace or so. My teammates and I could go and run that pace with him all day every day, but none of us were ever close to him in the races. The point is, don't expect a particular result based on what pace you are training at. 

    Run a race (or a few races) and honestly evaluate your performance. Did you run about as well as you could have expected to? If so, then enter that time(s) into the McMillan Running Calculator and see what comes up.

    If you are interested to know, I used to train at a daily pace of 6:00-6:30 during my early years of college. Now, I've slowed down considerably, like 6:45-7:00, on my easy runs and I'm running much faster in races because I'm able to do much more volume.  Maybe something to think about

    • CommentAuthorFree Memberjunkie_99
    • CommentTimeSep 2nd 2008 edited
     
    junkie_99

    http://www.runnersweb.com/running/vo2_js.html

    This is a VO2 max calculator. So far it's consistant for me...

    1500m @ 5:45 = 46vmax
    3.2K @ 12:55 = 47 vmax
    5k @ 20:45 = 47vmax

    So, according to this formula, I can expect a 3hr58min marathon (46 Vmax, and given proper training for the distance). I hope it's wrong...I'd like to finish faster. If I'm not mistaken, the times you use in this calculater should be "all out" times...preferably a race.

    Anyway, what's everyone's thought on this?

  11.  
    chucky canuck

     

      I think you never know until you actually do it.

     Can your know how your body will react to mile 20 or 24 before you run the full distance?

     

    • CommentAuthorFree Memberjunkie_99
    • CommentTimeSep 2nd 2008
     
    junkie_99
    Well chucky, I suppose that's what training is for...LOL. I'm running a 10k race on Saturday, and I'll see how close to the predicted time of 46 minutes I'll come.
  13.  
    chucky canuck

     

     I'm just saying how you run 10 miles may have little to do with how you might run 26.

      I can run 5 miles in just under 36 minutes, but I can;t keep anywhere near that pace for a half-marathon

    • CommentAuthorFree Memberjunkie_99
    • CommentTimeSep 3rd 2008
     
    junkie_99

    if you notice my times...

    5:45 per mile(1 mile)
    6:00 per mile (2 miles)
    6:45 per mile (3 miles)

    and projected marathon time 9 minutes per mile, all with the same VO2 max value. So, keeping your running pace at a VO2 max is different then trying to run 7 minute miles for a marathon. 

    • CommentAuthorFree MemberGilly32
    • CommentTimeSep 3rd 2008
     
    Gilly32

    Chucky:

    Jack Daniels has a grat table called VDOT.  His formula gives predictions based on your former race times.  Check it out.  His book, "Daniels' Running Formula," goes into it in great detail.

    All the Best!

  16.  
    chucky canuck

     

       Yes, I see it:

    http://www.runbayou.com/jackd.htm

       I still think it's an assumption that because I did a half marathon in 1:40, I can do a full in 3:34.  It's a reasonable assumption, but isentriely dependent on continued training at the proper levels.

      It also seems dependent on the assumption that your muscles won't revolt at mile 18 or 20, oir that you won't hit the wall.

      It's a very useful tool, but one that should not be seen as some sort of guarantee that you can fisnih a marathon at a certain pace.

     

    • CommentAuthorFree Memberjunkie_99
    • CommentTimeSep 3rd 2008
     
    junkie_99
    There are never any guarantees...the OP wanted an estimate to his marathon time, and I was just adding my $.02 worth. Any estimator out there is a simple guess, and assumes the same amount of training.
    • CommentAuthorFree MemberGilly32
    • CommentTimeSep 9th 2008
     
    Gilly32
    Right - never any guarantees...I take the estimates and add 10 minutes to it, that way I'm not disappointed if I don't hit it (smile).

1 to 18 of 18

  1.